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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.